Monday, 29 October 2012
I mainly take my sophisticated US election analysis pretty much straight from Ian Leslie's Marbury blog. It is grim to analyse the potential effect of Hurricane Sandy, but of course it is relevant. On average, Ian thinks it will let the President look presidential, and that's a plus.
Seems plausible. But I am worried (as someone who would massively prefer Obama to win, surprise fans) that anything that makes people feel glum will work against the incumbent. Tiny things make differences, however much people want to deny it. Just look at this incredible story by Tyler Cowen and Kevin Grier about the small but potentially vital swing that is caused by home state college football victories. The fate of US healthcare (for example) depends to a huge degree on what happens in Ohio in a very tight race, and the Ohio result could swing by the margin of victory based on a football result.
In other very interesting news purloined from one of my many internet sources, but I can't remember which one: on the difference between David Foster Wallace and Brett Easton Ellis, and why the former's style of putting everything on the page with great and beautiful clarity is the dominant style in the American arts at present, at the expense of the elliptical and ironic.