Monday, 27 February 2012

some of the people, some of the time



Below is a facebook conversation, anonymised. You might think it's boring, but some people like me will love it, and I know who some of them are. You can follow at least two of their blogs by clicking on my links.

FIRESTARTER Usain Bolt vs Mo Farah. Dead heat. What distance?
February 22 at 9:40pm ·

BLAKEMORE ‎800m
February 22 at 9:54pm ·

FIRESTARTER You reckon?
February 22 at 10:06pm ·

BLAKEMORE I reckon Bolt would be crap at anything over 400
February 22 at 10:06pm ·

EXTRA MILE Remember he was a 400m runner, I reckon I wouldn't die near enough before 600m so problably more 1000m
February 22 at 10:14pm ·

ANDREW PARTICIPANT ‎1500m
February 22 at 10:17pm ·

FIRESTARTER ‎1500? No way. Too far for Bolt
February 22 at 10:20pm ·

ANDREW PARTICIPANT Then probably something really short 80, or if this is a trick question 5m.
February 22 at 10:23pm ·

FIRESTARTER I reckon 700m
February 22 at 10:23pm ·

FIRESTARTER I will try to line them both up for this in 2013
February 22 at 10:24pm ·

BLAKEMORE ‎900m... I think Bolt might pull out quite a big lead to start with
February 22 at 10:30pm ·

MAN WHO CARES Since I really wanted to know the answer to this, I retrieved their PB data, fitted high order polyexponential trend lines and solved it graphically (assuming they both run 0 m in zero seconds). The answer is 679.03m, and they both run it in 91.085 seconds.
February 22 at 10:37pm · · 4

FIRESTARTER J, legendary work.
February 22 at 10:41pm ·

ANDREW PARTICIPANT Jim - can you fit polyexponential trend lines to horses?
February 22 at 10:41pm ·

MAN WHO CARES Will I make myself seem less geeky by correcting myself: I meant to say polynomials. And I'm going to go with yes on the horses
February 22 at 10:46pm ·

FIRESTARTER But, J, what value did you take for Bolt's 400m? He doesn't run many and his PB is slightly historic
February 22 at 10:47pm ·

MAN WHO CARES I used 45.28, from 2007. I reckon it stands.
February 22 at 10:49pm ·

FIRESTARTER I guess we'll find out next year. I will set the distance at 700m.
February 22 at 10:50pm ·

HUDSON This is one of the greatest facebook strands I have ever read which didn't feature people cutely doing sex talk in public and thinking it wasn't obvious to everyone. I want to quote it somewhere. Can I?
February 23 at 12:02am ·

BLAKEMORE Fine by me Robbie. What do you think though... 800m right?
February 23 at 12:11am ·

HUGH JARSE I reckon more 600-650: Usain's speed endurance looks suspect even in the 200m (look at his final 50m vs that of Yohan Blake); I think he would find anything over 400m very difficult indeed and his speed would drop very quickly. J - I'm not sure your (very impressive) analysis accounts for next to no training and a diet of chicken nuggets.
February 23 at 2:42am ·

MAN WHO CARES hmm, sounds possible, extrapolating the split time decay coefficient over longer distances. a similar negative decay would have to be analysed for Farah. In this case we will need exponetials. And considerable research and programming effort.
February 23 at 2:54am ·

LOGIC BOARD ‎0 metres. Do I win?
February 23 at 7:49am ·

DETAIL ORIENTED Extra Mile, I’d like to see him do another soon, maybe he'll be tempted after the Olympics? (He has vaguely hinted at dipping his toe back in at the distance).
Anyway, Bolt first to 400m by a significant gap, Bolt's 400m pace is going to round about Mo's absolute top speed. Though IMO Bolt would have to drop inside Mo's comfort zone in order to do 800m... I suspect Mo could go around 1m50, but Bolt couldn't... ( I've known sub 48s 400m guys fail to go sub 2m for 800m (with no additional training)). So I'm with Huw, somewhere between 600 and 700m, call it 650m. I'd to see him do another soon, maybe he'll be tempted after the Olympics? ( he has vaguely hinted at dipping his toe back in at the distance ).
Anyway, Bolt first to 400m by a significant gap, Bolt's 400m pace is
February 23 at 10:46am ·

HUDSON My gut instinct says something 679m.
February 23 at 11:11am · · 1

ROD OF IRON What would be bolt's best tactic in running this though. Go fast until he drops? I accept the brillaint graphical analysis but just feel with true competition, accepting bolt is rarely pushed, he would up his game. I'm going 750m and therefore that Bolt wins the 700m challenge.
February 23 at 8:18pm ·

EXTRA MILE So I thought we wouldn't get further on the topic and email Mo and Usain to see what they think about it. I got this from Mo's team :
8 hours ago ·

‎"Dear EXTRA MILE,

Thank you for your email and your kind supportive comments to Mo Farah, it is indeed very much appreciated.

Fred, this is the first I have ever heard such an idea - though I think pretty funny and creative. Mo & Usain (although are very good friends) will not compete against each other for obvious reasons - it is not possible. Mo is a long distance runner and Usain is a sprinter... (also 2 different physics). So I am afraid it is not possible to even think about the distance, etc, etc.

Thank you for taking the time to write to Mo Farah."

LOGIC BOARD Are they saying that Usain and Mo are subject to different laws of physics? That's big news.
8 hours ago ·

EXTRA MILE This is PR they will never commit to something that, let's see if Team Bolt comes back with anything :) fairplay to Mo's team getting back to me, all they are saying is they don't know and don't think we'll ever find out, which we knew already right ?

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